Sunday, April 22, 2007

Earth Day, Global warming, and Jeff

I found it rather funny that I had a long discussion about global warming with Jeff as we were playing RavenShield last night, on the eve of Earth Day...

I won't attempt to summarize our discussions. I was rather distracted by trying to survive in RvS and to try to follow the thread of my discussion with Jeff as well as to recall some of the major research conclusions concerning global warming. (I don't multitask very well, just ask my wife.) You see, Jeff is not convinced that global warming exists at all, and that scientists of like mind (either for or against the conclusion of global warming) banded together and that there was no consensus conclusion that global warming was a 100% certainty.

Well, it got me to thinking. I had recalled a study that, in my mind, was pretty conclusive. Well, I was wrong. In fact, the United Nation's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change had concluded in its Fourth Assessment Report that:
"It is very likely that the observed increase in methane concentration is due to anthropogenic activities, predominantly agriculture and fossil fuel use, but
relative contributions from different source types are not well determined." (p. 4)
Now, as a person familiar with the workings of the scientific community, it is very unlikely (read: impossible) for the community to come to an absolute consensus on just about any topic except the existence of gravity - and even there, I'm not so sure. The fact that the term "very likely" was used (the term used to indicate the assessed likelihood, using expert judgement, of an outcome or a result) exceeds 90% certainty - and this, of a group of 600 international climate experts from 40 countries, including the US.

(Incidentally, I had blogged earlier on the allegation that the Bush administration attempted to muzzle its own climate scientists and suppress research results. The attempt by any government to muzzle its own scientists is despicable - and the Bush administration is by no means alone!)

So, while in the mind of this group of scientists it is very likely that the gases that contribute to global warming are of anthopogenic origins, what should be done about it?

Well, I'm not an expert, but I figure we need to do something, and to do it now. We don't have time to screw around. My first thought is that we have to limit the output of greenhouse gases (ergo, the Kyoto Protocol). I'll have more to say about Kyoto when I've researched it properly and thought about it.

Happy Earth Day, everyone, and especially you, Jeff! ;-)

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Salut Bob,
Vraiment impressionnant ton blog. Un peu plus et je serais jaloux...lol...L'herbe est toujours plus verte chez le voisin y paraît...Je m'ennuie de RS et de la gang...Ces derniers mois j'ai été passablement occupé par ma job...Toi ça va?

À la prochaine Bob!

Salut les "potes" de ma part...

Pi

Anonymous said...

Pi!! you know i cant read french and babblefish wont do the translation justice!

savage

Anonymous said...

Sorry Savage, i thought i was the ONLY one to read Skept's blog...lol...

My apologies sir...I said that his blog was "cool" and that i miss my buddies from RS...

Cya all!

Pi