Tuesday, May 01, 2007

Climate models wrong: Arctic melts *faster* than forecast

Now, in my critique of the XTRONICS web page, I had defended the idea of climate modelling. One would think, in light of the news story by the BBC reporting that the Arctic ice mass is melting faster than predicted, that all these models are so much poppycock.

While a "perfect" model would account for all independent variables in a system, this in all likelihood be impossible to achieve in the real world. However, would argue that once that all the important independent variables have been taken into account, it the model would accurately forecast future climate trends.

What is apparent to me in this story, is that we still have not identified all the important independent variables.

It's interesting to note in this is the third time in the last few months that studies have suggested the IPCC's latest major global climate analysis, the Fourth Assessment Report, is too conservative.

Now, Bush / Harper, are you paying attention???

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